King Kulla wrote:
You want a strong, smart conservative woman? Look no further than Margaret Thatcher.
Woo! Go Thatcher. Tea party is nothing more than a bunch of anti-establishment types. There's a limit as to what can actually be done. The only way the Republicans (tea party members included) will be able to take victory in 2012 is if they have a strong candidate that can appeal to everyone. Maybe take on a tea partier as a running mate but the tea party is still too niche to have a presidential candidate.
I have a feeeling that the Tea Party wing is scaring most moderates away from the Republicans. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see another Democrat victory, but then again American politics never fails to do the opposite of what I think it'll do!
Yes, that's the way I see it. Obama is still hanging a left of centre stance on a lot of things, the Republicans are being dragged in the opposite direction by the Tea partiers. Which is an oft repeated pattern in politics - when one party is in power their main opposition seems to naturally swing towards the extremer wing of their ideology, it happened here to the Labour party when Thatcher got in and cost them 18 years out of power. But back to the 2012 election: whoever grasps the centre ground first will most likely win. You cannot make the electorate buy your message, to a degree you tailor your message to the electorate, because once you're in it's not like you have to govern by constant plebiscite is it? You use your judgement to win votes, it's a little machiavellian but it is the way politics works, you don't need them to agree with you; you just need them to give you their votes. And the majority of the votes lie in the centre ground. Not on the left or right wing.
But the Republicans have to be careful to not be seduced by a candidate who goes out of their way to appeal to their party base, as ending up with a candidate who scores high with registered republicans, but is a turn off for the independents is a sure fire way to throw the election before you've started. I think it'll be fairly easy to size up the election based on who the Republicans choice of a candidate. If they get it right Obama is in for a very hard campaign.
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